Network penetration technology Beginners

August 24, 2011
buffer overflow write data to the array, the length of the write data exceeds the size of the original definition of an array.
For example, in front of you define the intbuff [10], then the only buff [0], buff [9] space we define buff
application legal space, but Later, when the data is entered, write the buff [12] 0×10 you crossed the line. The C language commonly used
strcpy, sprintf, strcat function, are very easy to cause a buffer overflow problem.
access to the C programming language books will usually tell you when the program will overflow unpredictable results. Buffer overflow exploit in the field of network security
art is to make this “unpredictable results” into the results we expect.
to see this demo program: buf.c
“the> 2133529@qq.com * /
# include < br />
voidwhy_here (void)
{
printf (“whyu here?!”);
_exit (0) ;
}
intmain (intargc, char * argv [])
{
intbuff [1];
buff [2] (int) why_here;
return 0;
}
on the command line with VC command-line compiler to compile (under Linux with gcc to compile and run is the same result):
C: \ Temp> clbuf.c
run the program:

C: \ Temp> buf.E Ⅹ E
whyu here?!
careful analysis of the program and print the information, you can find the program, we do not call why_here function, but the function
at run time is called!
The only explanation is buff [2] why_here; operation causes the program execution process
To explain this phenomenon need to understand some of the C language the underlying (and related) computer architecture and compilation of knowledge, especially in the CALL
“stack” and the compilation / change. RET knowledge, if you still lack the proposed reference books,
or behind will be difficult to keep up.
assume the you already have basic understanding of the stack, we have to understand the procedures for the operation:
into the main function of the stack contents:
of eip] [ebp] [buff [0]
address <----
more than three storage units of the low address eip is the main function return address, buff [0] unit is to buff the stated int
space program we defined intbuff to [1], then only the operation buff [0] is reasonable (we only apply
an int space) buff [2] why_here operating beyond the space of the buff, this operating cross-border
overflow overflow consequences: buff [2] assignment in fact, cover the stack eip in the storage unit number
, the main function of the return address to the why_here function entry address returned so that the main function after the end of this address as the return address will be run.
The above demonstrates the buffer overflow to overflow the nature of the simplest and most core demo, requires careful understanding. If you
is not clear can be combined with the corresponding assembly The code to understand.
FA parameters can be specified when the VC command-line compiler to compile corresponding assembly code (Linux platform
gcc-S-parameters) :
C: \ Temp> cl / FA tex.c
C: \ Temp> typetex.asm
TITLE tex.c
.386 P
include listing.inc
if @ Version gt510
. modelFLAT
else
_TEXT SEGMENTPARA USE32PUBLIC ODE
_TEXT ENDS
_DATA SEGMENTDWORDUSE32PUBLIC ATA
_DATA ENDS
CONST SEGMENTDWORDUSE32PUBLIC ONST
CONST ENDS
_BSS SEGMENTDWORDUSE32PUBLIC SS
_BSS ENDS
$ $ SYMBOLS SEGMENTBYTEUSE32 EBSYM
$ $ SYMBOLS ENDS
_TLS SEGMENTDWORDUSE32PUBLIC LS
_TLS ENDS
FLAT GROUP_DATA, CONST, _BSS
ASSUME CS: FLAT, DS: FLAT, SS: FLAT
endif
INCLUDELIB LIBC

INCLUDELIB OLDNAMES
_DATA SEGMENT
$ SG775 DB hyu here?! 0aH, 00H
_DATA ENDS
PUBLIC _why_here
EXTRN _printf: NEAR
EXTRN __ exit: NEAR
_TEXT SEGMENT
_why_herePROCNEAR
push ebp
mov ebp, esp
push OFFSETFLATSG775
call _printf

addesp, 4
push 0
call __ exit
addesp, 4
popebp
ret0
_why_hereENDP
_TEXT ENDS
PUBLIC _main
_TEXT SEGMENT
_buff $ -4; size 4
_argc $ 8; size 4
_argv $ 12; size 4
_main PROCNEAR
< br /> push ebp
mov ebp, esp
push ecx
mov DWORD PTR_buff $ [ebp 8], OFFSETFLAT: _why_here
xor eax, eax
mov esp, ebp
pop ebp ret 0
,

that _main is ENDP
the _TEXT ENDS
END
this example, we overflow buff cover the function return address stack coverage data stack the data
also known as stack overflow. corresponding overflow cover in the heap, is called heap overflow occurred in the initialization data
zone is called to initialize the data area overflow.
implementation of the use (ie, attack this problem the program) need more themes that are not yet involved in buffer overflow:

the shellcode function
2. the shellcode to store address locator
3. overflow address location
will later chapters explain in detail.
the
SHELLCODE basis
overflow occurred after control overflow after the behavior of the key is the function of the shellcode. the shellcode is actually

segments machine code written in assembler because we are usually at most, will never directly use machine code programming, so it feels very mysterious
shellcode here to let us uncover its mystery.
see the program shell0.c:
the # include
intadd (int x, inty) {

return x y;
}
intmain (void) {
resultadd (129,127);
printf (“result% i”, result);
return 0;
}
This program is too simple to look at this program it? shell1.c
# the include
the # include
an int the add (int x, inty )
{
return x y;
}
typedef for an int (* PF) (int, int );
intmain (void)
{
unsignedcharbuff [256];
unsignedchar * ps (unsignedchar * )
unsignedchar * pdbuff;
intresult0;
PF pf (PF) buff;
while ( 1)
{
* pd * ps,;
printf (“[url = file :/ / \ \ xx \ \ xx” , * ps);
if (* ps, 0xc3)
{
break;
}

pd , ps ;
}
resultpf (129,127);
printf (“result% i”, result);
return 0;
compiled to run, the results are as follows:
the shell: \ x55 \ x89 \ xe5 \ x8b \ x45 \ x0c \ x03 \ x45 \ x08 \ x5d \ xc3
result25
lies shell1 shell1 and shell0 different add function correspond to the machine code from the code space to copy to the buff

(copy process, the way they print out), then run through a function pointer code in the buff!
key code to explain:
unsignedchar * ps (unsignedchar *)

Things admit of being used as symbols

November 2, 2011
important reminder: the system detects your account stolen there may be risks, please view the risk warning as soon as possible, and immediately change your password.
Netease blog Security reminder: the system detects your current password less secure, For your account security, we recommend that you change the password in a timely manner to immediately amend the Close
though they seem transparent, – and from the heaven of truth I shall see and comprehend my relations. That will reconcile me to life, and renovate nature, to see trifles animated by a tendency, and to know what I am doing. Life will no more be a noise; now I shall see men and women, and know the signs by which they may be discerned from fools and satans. This day shall be better than my birth-day: then I became an animal: now I am invited into the science of the real. Such is the hope, but the fruition is postponed. Oftener it falls, that this winged man, who will carry me into the heaven, whirls me into the clouds, then leaps and frisks about with me from cloud to cloud , still affirming that he is bound heavenward; and I, being myself a novice, am slow in perceiving that he does not know the way into the heavens, and is merely bent that I should admire his skill to rise, like a fowl or a flying fish, a little way from the ground or the water; but the all-piercing, all-feeding, and ocular air of heaven, that man shall never inhabit. I tumble down again soon into my old nooks, and lead the life of exaggerations as before, and have lost my faith in the possibility of any guide who can lead me thither where I would be. But leaving these victims of vanity, let us, with new hope, observe how nature, by worthier impulses, has ensured the poet fidelity to his office of announcement and affirming, namely, by the beauty of things, which becomes a new, and higher beauty, when expressed. Nature offers all her creatures to him as a picture-language. Being used as a type, a second wonderful value appears in the object, far better than its old value, as the carpenter stretched cord, if you hold your ear close enough, is musical in the breeze. “Things more excellent than every image,” says Jamblichus, “are expressed through images. “Things admit of being used as symbols, because nature is a symbol, in the whole, and in every part. Every line we can draw in the sand, has expre women
Articles from: www.louisnvuitton.com


my love is like a red, red rose and i wandered lonely as a cloud_camillo

April 8, 2011 the

Baokun Luo-Eng,-113-105 Burnett, Kimberly 11 March 2011 Oh, My Love is Like a Red, Red Rose, and the I Wandered Lonely As a Cloud Not many people are able to use language to express their emotion, especially to use poems as a media to express the complex emotional experiences they went through in life. “Oh, My Love is Like a Red, Red Rose,” written by Robert Burns, is about the speaker deep feelings with his beloved. He could not use anything to measure how much he loves her, only the poem expressed what is he want to say about his beloved. “I Wandered Lonely as a Cloud,” written by William Wordsworth, is about speaker realization of beautiful nature that makes him feel satisfied and filled with pleasure. The lonely poet sees a lot of yellow daffodils-a symbol of beautiful nature-that makes the poet feels he is in company with the beautiful nature and never feels lonely any more when he think about the beautiful view he has saw. Both poems use simple object to confront the depth meaning of emotion through symbols, imagery, and language.
Both poems are using romantic lyric style to confront speaker lonely life . One is about the speaker was apart from his love; another is about a lonely poet wandering around. The poem “Oh, My Love is Like a Red, Red Rose” opens up with the speaker comparing his love as newly sprung red rose and melody to tell how beautiful he thinks she is. The second and third stanza is telling the reader that how deeply in love with this beautiful lady. He promise that even all seas are dried and rocks are melted by the sun, he will still in love with her as long as he still alive. The last stanza speaker is telling the reader that he must apart with her for a while, but he vows that no matter how far apart it is he will still come to find her. “I Wandered Lonely as a Cloud “opens up with the speak was wandering round valleys and hills lonely, then he saw a crowd of yellow daffodils next to the lake and under the trees. These daffodils seems like they are dancing in the breeze. In the second stanza, he compares these daffodils with the star in the never-ending Milky Way. He saw many of these and they are shining, twinkling, and dancing. He thinks these daffodils are more beautiful than the sparkling waves in the lake. Then he asks himself, how come a poet cannot be happy after seeing this beautiful view and realizes how lucky he is to see this. The last stanza is about his memory seeing these daffodils and how much pleasure these brought to him. Every time he lies on a couch and thinking or not thinking, these beautiful daffodils flash back in his mind. He feels like he is dancing with these daffodils and that makes him so satisfied and happy.
Flowers are the beautiful gifts given by the great nature. Human interpret the meaning of the flower in a lot of different ways. Like, some people think they are the symbol of love, some people thinks they are the symbol of beauty, others think that they are the symbol of nature. In Burn “Oh , my love is like a red, red rose “and Wordsworth ” I Wandered Lonely as a Cloud “, they are both use flower as symbols of their emotions. In Burn ” Oh, My Love is Like a Red, Red Rose “, the rose symbolizes love. The red, red rose symbolizes speaker deep emotion of his beloved. These two consecutive “red” indicate his passion and enthusiasm on his beloved. In Wordsworth “I wandered lonely as a cloud”, the yellow daffodils are not just as a symbol of the beautiful nature, but also a symbol of the spiritual beauty. The line 4, “a host, of golden daffodils” (4), the daffodils are the symbol of nature by itself. “The angelic ost of flowers enables the poet to participate in a kind of spiritual beauty associated with nature “(Joplin 1). The choice of using the word” host “instead of a lot or crowd to associate these daffodils to a spiritual level-a host of angels. < br />
Both poems are using imagery to reinforce speakers expression of their deep emotions. In the “Oh, My Love is Like a Red, Red Rose”, Burns write, “Oh, my love is like a red , red rose / that newly sprung in June “(1-2). We can imagine that everything was green in June, and a red, red rose is the central focus in the green background.That tells us how important his beloved is in his life-in the center of his heart. We can also image that a newly sprung red rose as a new, fresh, young, and beautiful lady. The poet using these images to tell the reader that how speaker is thinking about his beloved. In “I Wandered Lonely as a Cloud,” these images served as an important role for the poet to express his realization of the beautiful nature. We can imagine there was a part host by the nature, and the poet joins the party lonely because he did not see anyone familiar or beautiful. Then he saw these beautiful yellow daffodils dancing in the dance-floor. After a while, he saw these twinkling stars joined the party. Finally, his old friend, water, joins the party along with the stars dancing and waving. How can he not be happy when he sees all these old human friends in company with him? The imagery of this happy company even made the speaker happy when he just thinking about it.
Both poet uses language to express their deep emotion, but one is using simile and another is using metaphor and personification. Burns used two consecutive similes to emphasize how beautiful his love is. He writes:
O, my love is like a red, red rose,
That newly sprung in June;
O, my love is like the melody
That sweetly played in tune. (1-4)
The first simile is to compare his beloved to the newly sprung red rose that not only suggests the lady he love is young and beautiful but also to suggest that he knows the beauty is just temporary. Then, he shifts to a more permanent feeling about his beloved that is comparing her to melody. What is a melody? That is a song or play we can listen or watch for many times and still like it. This suggests that even time goes by; he will still be in love with her. In Meyer overview of the poem, she writes, “These two comparisons, the love with the rose and the love with the melody, establish not only two consecutive similes, but a juxtaposing of two very essential concepts; beauty of appearance and beauty of sound “(1). By using these two similes, the speaker expressed how beauty of her appearance and sound, but also indicate his will be in love with her forever. Without using these, it may be more difficult for the speaker to tell the complex emotions he was experiencing.
In contrast, Wordsworth uses metaphor and personification to give the affect that finally he was part of the nature. Look at the title of the poem, “I Wandered Lonely as a Cloud,” he compares himself to something that floats in the sky. This metaphor gives us an idea how he feels before he sees the beautiful nature. Then the image starts shifting to a happiness feeling, he gives human qualities to these daffodils, stars, and water in the lake. He writes, “Fluttering and dancing in the breeze / and twinkle on the Milky Way / the waves beside them danced” (6, 8, 13). The waters of the lake dance in response to the same breeze as the daffodils, the parkling waves reflect the twinkling stars and the gleeful dance of nature now finally includes the poet “(McCulloch). The poet builds up a feeling that all of nature is accompanying him. Finally he wrote in the last stanza, “and then my heart with pleasure fills / and dances with the daffodils” (23-24). The poet finally realized that he was part of this beautiful nature, so why should he feel lonely? These language skills used in both poems are very efficient for the speaker to express their complex deep emotions.
Being able to express our emotion and feeling is the basic foundation of our happy life. To using language skill more efficiently to express our emotion is the purpose of study about writing. Both Burns and Wordsworth use symbols, imagery, and language to express the deep meaning of emotion. Being able to use these simple objects to express the complex emotion they undergo made both poems outstanding. If they did not use symbols in the poem, is like a painting without a focus of subject. If they did not use imagery, is like a painting without thought. If they did not use language, is like a painting without using color. It just like not everyone knows how to paint or write. To using these language skills more efficiently will help our writing be more meaningful to our reader. Work Cited Burns, Robert. “Oh, My Love is Like a Red, Red Rose “Literature: An Introduction to Fiction, Poetry, Drama, and Writing. Ed. XJ Kennedy, Dana Gioia. New York: Longman, 2010. 515. Print. McCulloch, Andrew.” The pulse of the infinite: wandered lonely as a cloud with its famous line A host of golden daffodils represents the popular face of Wordsworth. Yet what is this familiar lyric really about? “The English Review 19.3 (2009): 13 . Literature Resource Center. Web. 12 Mar. 2011. Meyer, Bruce. “Overview of Red, Red Rose ” Poetry for Students. Ed. Mary K. Ruby and Ira Mark Milne. Vol. 8. Detroit: Gale Group, 2000. Literature Resource Center. Web. 12 Mar. 2011. Wordsworth, William. “I Wandered Lonely as a Cloud.” Literature: An Introduction to Fiction, Poetry, Drama, and Writing. Ed. XJ Kennedy, Dana Gioia. New York: Longman, 2010. 432-433. Print

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October 31, 2011
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Daphne vertical B2C online shopping only started blowout

2011 May 06
not to force
life very, very stylish, very Paris Shirts, shoes, pants …. .. are on sale online, many traditional companies have “own company”, which began to blow the vertical B2C.
March 20, the domestic footwear brand Daphne began allowing people to “impressive” the. In its official shopping online, not only adds two new channels – and features the protagonist Hall Museum, and the sale of whichBride shoes, party shoes, evening shoes, are all purchase order and, more importantly, these shoes throughout the country in Daphne more than 2,000 stores in actually does not sell.
Daphne insiders from the South Korean plastic surgery news, Daphne began to overall development of e-commerce. In fact, this is not accidental act, one of the top three domestic B2C market, the 360buy Jingdong Mall, just have started the “Thousand enrollment” program, a comprehensive upgrade B2C business. There are Carrefour, the United States has also set up a separate e-commerce sector, more retail business network of direct sales system is stepping up its construction. B2C e-commerce market is a vertical exploded. It should be said, PPG is the fuse blew this B2C campaign. The network was established in 2005 shirt business, not a physical store, plant and pipeline, has now become the daily sales of around 10,000 in the “star” companies, while the domestic market leader in men shirts sold at Youngor It was at about 13,000. Results not only growing rapidly, PPG has also received $ 50,000,000 last year, venture capital and become the envy of many Internet companies, “light company.”
The basis of everything from the huge market space. According to China Internet Data Center Survey: B2C e-commerce market in China last year, up to 52.200 million yuan, the scale of 2008 is expected to B2C revenues will more than 7.09 billion yuan in 2009, is expected to reach 9.86 billion yuan. Meanwhile, online shopping market in China in 2007 totaled nearly 60 billion, annual growth was 90.4% . Has predicted that online shopping market will soon occupy the retail 5% -8% of the total, and the present, this ratio is only 0.64%.
Because of this, after the fire up in the PPG, VANCL, BONO, 51 shirts and more than 30 direct selling shirt brand the network immediately follow up. On the shirt, the 1.3 billion Chinese people if the average per person per year to buy 10 shirts only, if one of the 8% sell through the network, if network 300 days a year in order to digest, then the day went on sale across the network 7000000 shirt is enough.
It should be noted that the thunder Masamori PPG is a brand of shirts turned out, the specific shirt making is done by outsourcing the manufacturing sector, no factories of its own production capacity. BAOXINIAO subsequent follow-up, Younger is not the same, they are the traditionalShirt brand with a strong factory processing capacity, for B2C e-commerce to join, basically, “awakening” and is.
B2C now joined the ranks of Daphne, probably also “awakening” to the lure of the market. Another South Korean plastic surgery news, and Daphne same footwear industry O onnell, Belle and other traditional shoe enterprises have begun to seek B2C business. B2C business in the increasingly popular vertical industries behind, in addition to the needs of the market itself, the for the “net” enterprises, B2C sales channels is the increase in a form. Daphne said the manager, a prerequisite for success in the chain, the company also hopes toAn additional sales channels.
Bird is a classic good news. It is not only in the PPG “inspiration” are also involved in under the B2C business, specifically for this set up a brand BONO, but also significant “home on the later ones,” the trend.
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UBS China shoes into the stable distribution growth

May 10, 2011
Footwear. Continued of growth in per capita consumption. The UBS believes that China economic growth and urbanization will continue to have discretionary income and purchasing power growth. This is the foundation of the UBS prediction, UBS, is expected through 2012 annual average Chinese residents purchase 2.3 shoes, double the 2006 1.8.
Random footwear survey shows less brand loyalty. UBS to Shanghai and Beijing 56 population China midrange and high-end shoe brand random surveys . Only 14% of the respondents purchase decision was based on brand, while 44% of the respondents expressed concern about the shoe style, 22% attention to quality.
Because of its growing stable of Belle and location good; in 2007 the top ten brands list occupy six brand. According to Datamonitor data, footwear sales value will grow from 2003 to 2006 the average annual increase of composite 7.2% stable-2007-2010 5.3%, 2009-2012 5.1%. UBS says Chinese footwear market is rapidly growing into a stable growth, and its vast Belle sales network and significant business, as well as in 07 years ten brand list occupy six brands (China General Chamber of commerce data), will continue to strengthen its economic scale , and maintain stable growth.
UBS reiterated Belle (01880) buy rating; reduced Daphne (00210) to neutral rating. UBS thinks Belle of brand strategy and market leadership will help it become a long-term winner ; UBS reiterated its buy rating and will target price from $ 9.89 downward to HK $ 7.38 suggests 09 years expected earnings as 18 times. UBS will Daphne ratings lowered to neutral from buy and target price from $ 5.36 downward to HK $ 3.66 suggests 09 years expected earnings for 10 times, the UBS believes that Daphne new business and existing business currently faces many uncertainties.
Title: Chinese footwear into stable growth
Reporting unit: Union Bank of Switzerland
Author: David Lau
Text:
1. Summary and investment case
Despite the recent slowdown in China GDP growth and inflation is high, but still maintained on UBS footwear industry positive perspective, based on its lower per capita consumption quantity. Belle leads the footwear market sales value, and UBS thinks its enhanced economic scale and multi-brand strategy will help create long-term and stable growth. Therefore the purchase of UBS reiterated Belle rating. UBS will Daphne (previously the most successful companies) from buy to neutral, and dropped because its 2008 use authorization agreement and the lack of multiple brand has uncertain.
1. growth of actual space
According to Datamonitor data, the value of the footwear market in China by 03 70 billion dollars increased to 86 06 years, compound annual growth rate of us $ 7.2%. China urbanization has brought have identification taste of middle income group and discretionary income growth. UBS believes the Group growth will have on China positive impact on footwear market. 06 footwear sales to approximately $ 24 billion-and if the UBS to China divided by 13 million people, per person per year to only purchase 1.8 pair of shoes. 3.5 double compared to Korea, Japan and the United States of 5.3 dual 7.8 double, the base is very low; hence UBS says Chinese footwear market has great potential for growth. UBS is expected through 2012 China shoes per capita consumption will grow to 2.3 double compared to developed countries, despite this and other emerging markets are still very low.
2. random footwear survey shows low brand loyalty
In order to better understand China midrange and high-end footwear product buyers spending habits, UBS in Shanghai and Beijing to 56-bit Chinese residents had a small random surveys. UBS survey shows revenue growth and freely determine merchandise spending and total salary interrelatedtothe. Buy shoes decided several most important criterion, 44% of respondents choose style, 22% of select quality, 16% select price, only 14% select brand. Chinese footwear company, UBS believes the multi-brand strategy of Belle help Belle by providing multiple different style, quality and price of the brand to achieve low brand loyalty.
3. Reaffirms the Belle of the purchase price reduction target rating; to 7.38
According to the China General Chamber of commerce data, Belle, with its ten brand 07 years ago 6 seats in occupies, a female footwear market sales value leader. UBS is expected in 2008-2010 sales composite average annual growth of 32 %, net income of the average annual growth rate of composite 28%. UBS 7.38 target price implied in 2009 and 2010 expected earnings 18.0 times and 15.2 times. In terms of valuation, Daphne might seem more attractive, UBS will Belle superior Daphne comes down to the following: 1) significantly larger market capital; 2) greater economies of scale; 3) larger retail network; 4) multi-brand strategy; 5) stronger counteroffer; 6) higher net cash, and 7) potential consolidation capabilities. < br />
4. Daphne ratings lowered to neutral; reduction target price to $ 3.66
Daphne has two international brand reach exclusive licensing agreement for sale Nike license product, and start a called “Shoeshop “new shop mode. Although these developments have the potential to become a profit motive, but will remain cautiously optimistic about UBS until the discovery of these new investment from profitability further clarity. So although it seems that the current share price, Daphne is Belle more attractive, but the UBS is expected peer discounts will be extended, and Daphne ratings lowered to neutral from buy-in for the following reasons: 1) market capital is relatively small; 2) lower economic scale; 3) the smaller retail network; 4 ) net cash low; 5) lack of multiple brand strategy. UBS will target price by Daphne 5.36 downward to HK $ 3.66 suggests in 2009 and 2010 expected earnings 9.8 times and 8.4 times, expected in 2008-2010 earnings compound growth rate of 18% annually.
2. industry risks
1. inflation and China economic slowdown
Chinese footwear industry prospects and China economic growth is highly relevant. High inflation and economic slowdown will lead to a weak retail confidence, and erosion of consumer discretionary income. This will slow down the growth of industry. If not in daily operations to take effective control of the costs or increase sales growth, rising raw material and labor costs will negatively impact the company profits.
2. consumer tastes and fashions change risks
As consumers on the international fashion trends contact more and more, their purchase is becoming increasingly have identification capabilities. If footwear company could not be consistent with the fashion trends and changes in consumer preferences, sales will decline and the brand will be at risk.
3. competition
Footwear industry competition has intensified, as more and more international brand to enter the market. Domestic footwear retailers for the midrange and high-end brand distribution rights competition and through acquisition to increase brand portfolio to gain market share increase competitiveness. Footwear retailers not only concerned about the level of the destination city, they also include third-tier cities in China. They have developed different marketing strategies to get strong growth kinetic energy.
4. inventory and brand management
< br /> Competition requirements footwear company improve inventory and brand management. From inventory levels higher cause of slow inventory flow will cause the company working capital. Besides sportswear and other apparel business diversification will give companies the other challenges and risks, manage multiple brands and product lines limited experience.
5. borrowing costs and exchange rates rise
Higher interest rates driving the cost of borrowing increased. This pull tight footwear retailers sources of financing. Sustained increase of RMB may also relate to foreign currency import and export business of the enterprise financial risk.
3. valuation
UBS on Daphne valuation based on discounted cash flow model. UBS on Belle valuation by the discounted cash flow model for classification and the total valuation of discounted cash flow method, this distinction between Belle footwear and sportswear business, to display the fair value of the sector.
1. the purchase of UBS reiterated Belle; reduction target price rating to 7.38
Because since May 2007 acquisition, since numerous Belle currently has more than 20 footwear brand, six of which brand is located in the top ten brands list 2007 (according to the China General Chamber of Commerce of data). UBS thinks Belle by virtue of multiple brand strategy and a strong ability to make a counter-offer to maintain market leadership. Therefore, UBS thinks Belle is footwear industry over the long term winner, and reaffirms the company buy rating.
UBS in the discounted cash flow model assumptions in much more conservative approach, reducing the 2011-2020 year before interest and taxes profit forecast, which leads to UBS will Belle target price lowered by 9.89 7.38. UBS new target price implied 09 years expected earnings as 18 times, Daphne 09 years expected earnings 10 x 84% premium. Taking into account its historical trading model and Belle market leading position, UBS thinks this range of premium is reasonable.
2. Daphne ratings lowered to neutral from buy; target prices to 3.66
Although the first half of 2008 annual results is good, but the UBS believes that Daphne are facing more industry risk, because of its lack of multiple brands, and its new business uncertainty. UBS will 2009 earnings per share are expected to decline 3%, and ratings by buying down to neutral, and 12-month target price from $ 5.36 downward to HK $ 3.66 suggests 09 years expected price-earnings ratio is 10 times.
3. Belle and Daphne valuation gap will widen
Since 07 may Belle and Daphne monthly average expected earnings 29.9 times and 16.2 times, shows the average price-earnings ratio is Daphne Belle 46% discount.
Based on 3 October the stock price, Belle and Daphne 09 years expected earnings 14.9 times and 8.6 times, display Daphne earnings compared to 41% discount Belle. Considering that Belle market leadership, brand strategy and strong ability of counter-offer. UBS expects valuation discount will slightly increase, to 46%, based on the Belle and Daphne 09 years expected implied earnings respectively 18 x and 10 x

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